Exploitability Prediction
Exploitability prediction in cybersecurity assesses the likelihood of an attacker successfully exploiting a particular vulnerability in a system or application. It goes beyond knowing that a vulnerability exists; it aims to forecast whether and how easily an attacker could take advantage of that weakness.
Here's a breakdown of what exploitability prediction involves:
Vulnerability Analysis: This includes examining the technical details of the vulnerability, such as its type (e.g., buffer overflow, SQL injection), location, and the conditions required for successful exploitation.
Attack Vector Assessment: This evaluates how an attacker could reach and exploit the vulnerability. Factors considered include whether the vulnerable system is exposed to the internet, requires authentication, or is only accessible internally.
Exploit Availability: A key factor is whether a working exploit exists for the vulnerability. Publicly available exploits significantly increase the likelihood of exploitation, as attackers can readily use them.
Attacker Capability: Exploitability prediction may also consider the level of skill and resources an attacker would need to exploit the vulnerability. Some vulnerabilities are easy to manipulate, even by novice attackers, while others require advanced technical expertise.
Threat Actor Activity: Current threat intelligence plays a role. The exploitability prediction should reflect this increased risk if known threat actors actively target a particular vulnerability.
Environmental Factors: The affected system's specific configuration and security controls can also influence exploitability. For example, a vulnerability might be harder to exploit if a strong firewall exists.
Exploitability prediction combines these factors to provide a more dynamic and realistic vulnerability risk assessment. This allows security teams to prioritize remediation efforts effectively, focusing on severe vulnerabilities likely to be exploited.
ThreatNG and Exploitability Prediction
ThreatNG provides data and assessments that contribute to a more accurate prediction of a vulnerability's likelihood of being exploited.
ThreatNG’s Capability: ThreatNG performs external, unauthenticated discovery. This is the foundation for exploitability prediction because it identifies all the externally accessible systems and applications that could be targeted.
Example: ThreatNG discovers all subdomains and web applications. This is important because a vulnerability on an internet-facing subdomain is generally more exploitable than a vulnerability on an internal system.
Synergy with Complementary Solutions:
Network Mapping Tools: ThreatNG's discovery can be combined with network mapping tools. These tools can provide a detailed network topology, showing how systems are connected and exposed, which helps assess potential attack vectors and exploitability.
ThreatNG's external assessment capabilities provide several factors that influence exploitability prediction:
Vulnerability Information: ThreatNG provides direct vulnerability information.
Example: ThreatNG's Domain Intelligence module covers parameters, including vulnerabilities, to determine cyber risk exposure. Knowing the specific vulnerabilities present is the first step in assessing exploitability.
Attack Vector Assessment: ThreatNG's assessments provide insights into potential attack vectors.
Example: ThreatNG assesses Web Application Hijack Susceptibility. A high susceptibility score suggests that the application has weaknesses that make it easier to exploit, increasing the likelihood of a successful attack.
Code Secret Exposure: ThreatNG discovers code repositories and their exposure level, investigating the contents for the presence of sensitive data.
Example: ThreatNG discovers public code repositories, uncovering digital risks, including Access Credentials (API Keys). Credential exposure increases exploitability. If ThreatNG finds exposed API keys, for example, this significantly increases the exploitability of any API endpoints that use those keys for authentication.
Synergy with Complementary Solutions:
Penetration Testing Tools: ThreatNG's findings can usefully direct penetration testing efforts. By highlighting potentially exploitable vulnerabilities, ThreatNG can help penetration testers focus their efforts, leading to a more accurate assessment of real-world exploitability.
3. Reporting
ThreatNG’s Capability: ThreatNG provides reports that highlight potential security risks. These reports can include information relevant to exploitability.
Example: ThreatNG provides prioritized reports. These reports can highlight vulnerabilities considered high-risk, considering factors like known exploits or the ease of exploitation.
Synergy with Complementary Solutions:
Risk Management Platforms: ThreatNG's reporting data can usefully integrate with risk management platforms. This allows organizations to incorporate exploitability predictions into their overall risk assessments and prioritize remediation efforts accordingly.
ThreatNG’s Capability: ThreatNG continuously monitors the external attack surface. This is crucial for exploitability prediction because the threat landscape and the availability of exploits can change rapidly.
Example: ThreatNG continuously monitors all organizations' external attack surface, digital risk, and security ratings. If ThreatNG detects a new exploit for a vulnerability on an organization's system, it can trigger an alert, indicating an increased likelihood of exploitation.
Synergy with Complementary Solutions:
Threat Intelligence Platforms (TIPs): Threat intelligence platforms provide real-time information on threat actors and their tactics. ThreatNG's monitoring data can combine with TIP data to enhance exploitability prediction. For example, if a TIP indicates that a particular threat actor is actively targeting a specific vulnerability, the exploitability of that vulnerability should be considered higher.
ThreatNG's investigation modules provide detailed information that helps in assessing the exploitability of vulnerabilities:
Domain Intelligence: This module provides detailed information about an organization's domains and subdomains, which can reveal potential attack vectors.
Example: The Subdomain Intelligence feature can identify vulnerable web applications or APIs, which are common targets for exploitation.
Sensitive Code Exposure: This module discovers exposed credentials and sensitive information in code repositories.
Example: Code Repository Exposure uncovers public code repositories, uncovering digital risks, including Access Credentials (API Keys). Exposed credentials significantly increase exploitability, as they can be used to bypass authentication.
Synergy with Complementary Solutions:
Exploit Databases: ThreatNG's investigation data can be used with exploit databases. These databases provide information on known exploits, availability, and technical details, crucial for accurate exploitability prediction.
6. Intelligence Repositories (DarCache)
ThreatNG’s Capability: ThreatNG's intelligence repositories (DarCache) provide valuable information for exploitability prediction.
Example: The Vulnerabilities (DarCache Vulnerability) repository provides information on vulnerabilities, including whether there are known exploits (DarCache eXploit). This is a critical factor in exploitability prediction, as a working exploit significantly increases the likelihood of exploitation. DarCache also includes EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System) data, which provides a probabilistic estimate of the probability of a vulnerability being exploited shortly.
Synergy with Complementary Solutions:
Threat Intelligence Platforms (TIPs): DarCache data can usefully enrich TIPs, providing context for vulnerabilities. For example, if DarCache indicates that a vulnerability is being actively exploited in the wild (KEV) or by a specific threat actor, a TIP can use that information to refine exploitability predictions.
ThreatNG offers a range of capabilities that contribute to more accurate exploitability prediction. By providing discovery, assessment, monitoring, investigation, and intelligence, ThreatNG helps organizations move beyond simply identifying vulnerabilities to understanding the likelihood that those vulnerabilities will be exploited, enabling them to prioritize remediation efforts effectively. The potential synergies with complementary solutions enhance its value in a proactive vulnerability management strategy.
