Threat Model
In the domain of cybersecurity and attack path intelligence, a Threat Model is a structured representation of all the information that affects the security of an application, system, or organization. It is a proactive engineering process used to identify potential threats, vulnerabilities, and the absence of appropriate safeguards, allowing security teams to see their environment through the eyes of an adversary.
When applied to attack path analysis, threat modeling shifts from a general list of "what could go wrong" to a specific, evidence-based map of how an attacker would move through a sequence of exploits to achieve a goal.
What is a Threat Model in Attack Path Analysis?
A threat model acts as the strategic blueprint for understanding adversarial movement. It provides a formal logic for "Path Descriptions," which explain the "how and why" of a security risk. In attack path intelligence, a threat model does not examine a vulnerability in isolation; instead, it considers how that vulnerability serves as a "pivot point" or "choke point" within a broader narrative of a potential breach.
By defining a threat model, organizations can move from a reactive posture—patching every vulnerability—to a strategic one, where they prioritize breaking the "exploit chains" that pose the most significant material risk to their core business functions.
Core Components of an Attack-Centric Threat Model
To provide actionable intelligence, a comprehensive threat model must include several layers of data correlation:
1. Adversarial Narrative and TTPs
The model defines the "Adversarial Narrative," which is the story of the attack. This includes the Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) an attacker is likely to use. It covers everything from initial reconnaissance on social media to the final exfiltration of sensitive data.
2. Step Actions and The Kill Chain
Every threat model breaks down a potential attack into "Step Actions." These actions are typically mapped to industry-standard frameworks like the Lockheed Martin Cyber Kill Chain or the MITRE ATT&CK techniques. Examples include:
Reconnaissance: Collecting data via OSINT or domain enumeration.
Weaponization: Crafting a specific payload, such as a phishing kit.
Exploitation: Gaining an initial foothold via a technical flaw like a subdomain takeover.
3. Step Tools (The Adversary Tech Stack)
A robust threat model identifies the specific software and utilities an attacker would use to execute each stage. This is known as the adversary's "tech stack," which might include automated scanners, interception proxies, or specialized exploitation frameworks.
4. Chained Relationships
This is the "Connective Tissue" of the threat model. It explains how another vulnerability amplifies the risk of a given one. For example, a missing security header is more dangerous if the threat model shows it is chained to a leaked credential found on the dark web.
Why Threat Modeling is Vital for Security Clarity
Without a threat model, security teams suffer from a "Crisis of Context," where they are overwhelmed by data volume but lack the insight to act.
Identifying Choke Points: Threat modeling reveals the critical nodes where multiple attack paths converge. Securing these points offers the highest return on security investment.
Ending Alert Fatigue: By providing a narrative, threat models help analysts distinguish between "noise" and high-fidelity threats that are part of a viable attack path.
Business Risk Alignment: It translates technical findings into business-risk language, enabling leadership to understand which exposures are "Crown Jewel" threats.
Common Questions About Threat Models
How does a threat model differ from a vulnerability scan?
A vulnerability scan identifies a list of technical bugs. A threat model explains how an attacker would use those bugs in a specific sequence (an attack path) to achieve a malicious objective.
What are "Pivot Points" in a threat model?
A pivot point is a specific point at which an attacker moves from one part of the attack surface to another—for example, moving from a finding on social media to a vulnerability in cloud infrastructure.
Can threat models be used for compliance?
Yes. Threat models provide "Legal-Grade Attribution" and irrefutable proof required by many GRC (Governance, Risk, and Compliance) frameworks to justify security investments and prove proactive risk management.
In cybersecurity, a Threat Model is a structured blueprint that identifies potential threats, vulnerabilities, and the absence of appropriate safeguards, allowing organizations to see their environment through the eyes of an adversary. ThreatNG facilitates this process by transforming raw external data into actionable "outside-in" attack path intelligence, primarily through its DarChain (Digital Attack Risk Contextual Hyper-Analysis Insights Narrative) capability.
The following sections detail how ThreatNG enables comprehensive threat modeling through its core modules and its potential for collaboration with complementary solutions.
External Discovery of Threat Model Entry Points
Threat modeling begins with identifying all internet-facing assets that an adversary might target. ThreatNG automates this phase by performing purely external, unauthenticated discovery without requiring internal agents.
Shadow IT and Unmanaged Assets: The platform uncovers forgotten subdomains, temporary development environments, and unmanaged cloud instances that often lack corporate security oversight.
Domain and Brand Presence: ThreatNG discovers registered and available domain permutations, such as typosquatted or lookalike domains, which adversaries use for phishing or brand impersonation.
Supply Chain Mapping: It identifies external vendors, cloud services, and SaaS applications associated with the organization, mapping potential paths that could originate from a compromised partner.
External Assessment and DarChain Narrative Mapping
ThreatNG’s assessment engine uses DarChain to perform "Digital Risk Hyper-Analysis," which chains disparate findings into a structured threat model. This identifies Chained Relationships, in which another vulnerability amplifies the risk of a first.
Detailed Examples of DarChain Threat Models
Cross-Site Scripting (XSS) via CSP Bypass: ThreatNG identifies a subdomain missing a Content Security Policy (CSP). DarChain chains this to APIs on subdomains and to compromised email addresses from the dark web. The resulting narrative explains how the missing CSP facilitates an XSS attack to harvest credentials that feed into email compromise campaigns.
Initial Access to Cloud Resources: ThreatNG identifies files in publicly accessible cloud buckets. DarChain maps this to configuration data needed to move deeper into the environment. It chains this with code secrets found in those files to show how an attacker pivots from a public file to a private database.
Governance Gap Exploitation: The platform mines SEC 8-K filings and correlates disclosed risks with technical vulnerabilities. If a company discloses a specific risk but has an unpatched "Critical" vulnerability in that area, DarChain highlights how attackers use public statements to validate the value of their target for ransomware demands.
Investigation Modules for Granular Context
ThreatNG includes specialized investigation modules that allow analysts to deep-dive into the specific "Step Actions" and "Step Tools" an adversary is likely to use.
Detailed Examples of Investigation Modules
Sensitive Code Exposure: This module scans public repositories, such as GitHub, for leaked API keys, cloud credentials, and Jenkins passwords. Finding a hardcoded secret provides a validated step for an "Unauthorized Access" path.
Dark Web Presence (DarCache Rupture): This module monitors for compromised credentials and brand mentions in hacker forums. An investigation might reveal attackers discussing an unpatched vulnerability in the organization's tech stack, which would mark that path as a high priority.
Social Media Discovery: These modules turn "conversational risk" from Reddit or LinkedIn into intelligence. If an employee asks for technical help online, an attacker can use that "Reddit Intelligence" to build a technical blueprint for a targeted social engineering path.
Intelligence Repositories and Global Context
The DarCache suite of intelligence repositories provides the real-world context needed to prioritize threat models. It integrates data from the KEV (Known Exploited Vulnerabilities) catalog to confirm active exploitation and EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System) to predict future likelihood. ThreatNG also tracks over 70 ransomware gangs, allowing organizations to prioritize paths currently being weaponized by active threat actors.
Reporting and Continuous Monitoring
To maintain a proactive defense, ThreatNG provides:
Continuous Monitoring: The platform continuously rescans for new assets and vulnerabilities to keep the threat model map up to date.
Actionable Reporting: ThreatNG delivers technical workbooks that identify "Attack Path Choke Points"—critical vulnerabilities where multiple potential attack chains intersect. Fixing a choke point collapses multiple threat models simultaneously.
Cooperation with Complementary Solutions
ThreatNG provides the external intelligence that triggers and enriches the workflows of internal security tools to dismantle adversary narratives.
Identity and Access Management (IAM): When ThreatNG uncovers leaked API keys or credentials in public code, it feeds this data to IAM platforms to trigger immediate key rotation or password resets.
Security Orchestration and Automation (SOAR): High-fidelity alerts from a "Subdomain Takeover" model can trigger SOAR playbooks to automatically delete dangling DNS records or block malicious IP addresses at the perimeter firewall.
Vulnerability Management and EDR: ThreatNG identifies the specific "Tech Stack" an attacker is likely to target. This allows internal vulnerability scanners to prioritize those assets and enables Endpoint Detection and Response (EDR) tools to increase monitoring sensitivity on the servers identified in a potential attack path.
Common Questions About Threat Models and ThreatNG
How does DarChain differ from standard threat modeling?
Traditional threat modeling often relies on manual, point-in-time assessments. DarChain uses "Digital Risk Hyper-Analysis" to automatically and continuously chain disparate external findings into a structured, predictive narrative of adversarial movement.
Why is identifying "Choke Points" critical in a threat model?
An "Attack Path Choke Point" is a critical vulnerability that appears in multiple different attack narratives. Securing a choke point is the most efficient use of resources because it disrupts multiple potential attack paths simultaneously.
Can non-technical data be part of a threat model?
Yes. ThreatNG treats organizational instability—such as layoff chatter or lawsuits—as a core part of its threat modeling, recognizing that these events provide the psychological "hook" used for technical breaches like Business Email Compromise.
